More technology-led transformation is coming and artificial intelligence (AI) will be at the heart of that change, says a report ARK Investmentswhich is an investment management firm focused on disruptive innovation in the public equity market.
“We’re all about finding the next big thing. People who lean toward benchmarks, who look backward, are not about the future. They’re about what’s worked. We’re about what’s going to work,” he says. Cathy WoodFounder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of ARK.
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ARK publishes a big idea The annual report, which provides comprehensive analysis of technological convergence and its potential to revolutionize industries and economies:
The ARK Big Ideas 2024 The report is titled ‘Disrupting the norm, defining the future’ and outlines 15 big ideas, which are:
- Technological convergence – Global equity market value associated with disruptive innovation could increase by 60% by 2030.
- Artificial intelligence – Global Intelligence Scaling and Redefining Tasks: AI training costs should continue to decrease by 75% per year.
- Smart contract – By powering internet-native financial systems, smart contract networks could generate $450bn in fees by 2030.
- Digital wallet – Digital wallets could grow select vertical software platform revenues to $27-$50bn in 2030.
- Mechanical engineering – Generalizing automation to convergence of AI software and hardware. Generalizable robotics presents a $24 trillion-plus global revenue opportunity.
- Digital Customer – The transition to digital retirement, where spending could reach $23 trillion in 2030.
- Electric vehicles – Adoption of low battery consumption powering means EV sales could reach 74 million in 2030.
- Robotoxis – Robotaxi platforms could generate $28 trillion in enterprise value by 2030.
- Multiomic Tools and Technology – Translating biological insights into economic value: R&D costs can be reduced by more than 25%, thanks to multiomic tools and technologies.
- Reusable rockets – Satellite connectivity revenues could exceed $130 billion per year in 2030.
- Autonomous logistics – Global autonomous revenue supply could reach $900 billion by 2030.
- Allocation of Bitcoins – Increasing the role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios. Over the past seven years, Bitcoin’s annual return has averaged around 44%.
- Bitcoin in 2023 – After the challenge in 2022, the price of Bitcoin rose 155% last year, reaching a market value of $827 billion.
- Appropriate therapy – Treating diseases more efficiently and less expensively. The enterprise value of companies focused on precision therapies could reach $4.5 trillion by 2030.
- 3D printing – Revenues could grow at an annual rate of 40% to $180 billion by 2030.
ARK’s 2024 Big Ideas report identifies five innovation platforms that are transforming and defining the technological era: AI, public blockchain, energy storage, robotics and multiomic sequencing. ARK also looks at the historical impact and projected economic impacts of converging technologies.
The organization identifies AI as a central technology catalyst. Let’s dive deeper into the AI chapter of the 2024 BIg Ideas report.
AI: Redefining Work
The research suggests that coding assistants are early success stories that have increased the productivity and job satisfaction of software developers. AI-powered assistants are increasing the performance of knowledge workers and, interestingly, benefiting low-performing workers more than high performers:
Foundational models are evolving across domains. With a larger training dataset and more parameters, GPT-4 significantly outperforms GPT-3.5. Increasingly, Foundation models are becoming “multimodal” — supporting text, images, audio and video — and are not only more dynamic and user-friendly, but also more functional. Analysis has shown that the cost of writing the written word is reduced by:
AI-training performance is improving rapidly. What’s more, training costs should continue to decrease by 75% per year. The study noted that after initially focusing on large language model (LLM) training-cost optimization, researchers are now prioritizing estimation costs. For enterprise-scale use cases, estimated costs appear to be falling at an annual rate of about 86%, which is faster than the decline in training costs. Today, the estimated costs associated with the GPT-4 Turbo are lower than those of the GPT-3 a year ago:
The open source community is competing with the private model. ARK says the performance of the open-source model is improving faster than the closed-source model. Advancing LLM performance will require nuanced strategies, highlighted as an example in the Stanford HELM Framework report.
Also: Why open source generative AI models are still a step behind GPT-4
ARK also noted that computing power and high-quality training data appear to be primary contributors to model performance. As models grow larger and require more training data, will the lack of new data cause the model’s performance to plateau? Research firm Epoch AI estimates that high-quality language/data sources, such as books and scientific papers, may be exhausted by 2024, although a large set of untapped vision data still exists:
Research suggests that accelerating employee productivity using AI could have a multi-trillion dollar impact. AI has the potential to automate most tasks in knowledge-based occupations by 2030, dramatically increasing the productivity of the average worker. Software solutions that automate and accelerate knowledge tasks should be the main beneficiaries:
The ARK Invest Big Idea 2024 report is the gold standard for detailing the disruptive technologies that will shape industries and economies for the next decade. A summary of the AI chapter of the report includes the possible prospects for AI after 2030 and possible scenarios by 2040:
The report also contains other great content. The report’s Digital Consumer and Digital Wallet chapters are important for business leaders in any sector and any size For example, the report suggests that social commerce will grow at an annual rate of 32%, from $730 billion today to more than $5 trillion in 2030.
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The Big Ideas Report is a comprehensive study of disruptive technologies, with over 160 pages of analysis. To know more about the research, you can visit here.